Published: 09/05/2022 By Tom Bloomfield
It’s well documented that UK residential property values have soared since the end of the first lockdown; ONS figures showed an 11% rise in 2021 and Rightmove who sit on the front line when it comes to asking prices and activity levels, reported continued records in April just gone, albeit with a slight decline in the rate of increase.
We talk with buyers and vendors on a daily basis and whilst all seem to grasp the broad economic uncertainties, few have firm views about how these could influence the property market. With that in mind I’ve put together a mixed bag of expert opinions which I think cover the spectrum of views and are worth a read or a listen if you are about to join the market.
These begin with economic commentator Fred Harrison on the Money Week podcast. He famously predicted the last economic crash and now says that house prices will peak in 2026. A written explanation of Fred’s views by Dominic Frisby can be found here.
More pessimistic views are held by Kate Andrews of the Spectator (fast forward to six mins 40 seconds) and housing market analyst Neal Hudson. Kate predicts issues with mortgage affordability, and Neal expects prices to decline to reflect increases in the cost of living; however, he goes on to say that tenants will take the bigger hit than homeowners who will stay away from the market rather than sell and realise a loss.
Lastly John Stepek argues that the utility value of property versus other investments means UK house prices may hold up when compared to other asset classes. He also argues that homeowners should worry less about rises or falls in property values and more on affordability.